Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.99 Published $240.69 Target $177.19 Window close $197.63 Peak
$171.98 – $179.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.99Published — price the day we called it
$240.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$177.19
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 29, 2025 – February 27, 2026

The thesis — published November 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+36%
over the measurement window
Target price
$240.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$171.98 – $179.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.99
published November 29, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leader in chips used for AI and data centers. After a sharp drop the stock looks oversold but the company's business and investor interest remain strong. CEO statements about huge AI spending, deeper Microsoft ties, and award recognition all point to steady demand. We think the price can rebound once selling calms, though a shift away from expensive tech is the main risk.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for GPUs in AI and data centers driving sales and margins.
  • Recent sharp drop left the stock in an extreme oversold condition.
  • CEO comments and Microsoft deal increase visibility of future demand.
  • Industry award and strong investor sentiment support confidence.

How it played out

NVDA: thesis rose but never reached target

On 2025-11-29, Lyra published NVDA at $176.99 with an expected 36% gain to $240.69. The thesis pointed to demand for GPUs in artificial intelligence and data centers, an oversold setup after a sharp drop, CEO comments, Microsoft ties, and strong investor sentiment. It also named a shift away from expensive tech as the main risk.

Inside the 2025-11-29 to 2026-02-27 window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, with an 11.7% peak gain. It never reached $240.69. The stock ended at $177.19. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-05, Nvidia unveiled the Vera Rubin computing platform at CES 2026, with partner availability expected in the second half of 2026. On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $68.13 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion. These were reported events, not stated causes of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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