NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 28, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 26, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 28, 2025
Nvidia is a central supplier for AI and data-center computing, so demand for its products keeps the business strong even as the stock pulls back. Recent trading shows selling pressure easing and price testing important levels, which could set up a rebound. News that Meta may buy Google TPUs adds competition risk, but Nvidia remains a leading AI infrastructure winner.
Primary drivers
- Growing AI and data-center use keeps revenue and profit power strong
- Recent price action shows selling is slowing and support being tested
- Meta looking at Google TPUs creates competition risk for top chips
- Analyst reports still treat Nvidia as a leading performer despite the pullback
How it played out
NVDA: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published NVDA at $178.03 on 2025-11-28 with an expected gain of 35%. The thesis pointed to demand from artificial intelligence and data-center computing, easing selling pressure, support being tested, competition risk from Meta looking at Google TPUs, and analyst support despite the pullback.
Inside the window, NVDA rose, but it did not reach the $240.33 target. The peak was $197.63 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 11%. It ended the window at $184.89. The direction was right, but the move was far smaller than the published target. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On February 25, 2026, Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $68.13 billion and data-center revenue of $62.3 billion, according to The Guardian. The same report said revenue and earnings came in above Wall Street estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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