NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 27, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 25, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 27, 2025
Nvidia is the main supplier of the computer chips and systems that power AI services. It reported huge data-center sales of $51.2 billion and says customers have ordered far more GPUs than it can currently deliver, which should keep revenue growing for several quarters. Shares fell recently but heavy trading suggests big investors are buying on weakness. Cloud providers selling out of GPUs adds urgency to demand, making near-term volatility a chance to build a position for the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Very large data-center sales and a massive GPU order backlog that support future growth
- Recent pullback fits a buy-on-weakness approach within the longer uptrend
- Strong trading volume shows big investors are adding on dips
- Cloud providers selling out of GPUs highlights persistent, urgent demand
How it played out
NVDA: target not reached, shares peaked at $197.63
Lyra published NVDA at $180.25 on 2025-11-27 with a three-month thesis for 36% growth toward $245.13. The thesis pointed to $51.2 billion in data-center sales, a large GPU order backlog, a recent pullback, heavy trading volume, and cloud providers selling out of GPUs as signs that demand stayed urgent.
Inside the window, the stock rose, but it did not reach the target. The peak was $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 9.6% gain. It ended at $195.56. The published direction was right, but the size of the move missed the thesis. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion and data-center revenue of $62.3 billion. The company also projected next-quarter revenue near $78 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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