Track record · closed signal

Aramark (ARMK) — closed signal from November 26, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARMK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.27 – $36.27Entry zone — fair-value band

$37.58Published — price the day we called it

$44.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$42.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$40.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$42.94

peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+14.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$40.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 26, 2025 – February 24, 2026

The thesis — published November 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$44.20

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.27 – $36.27

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$37.58

published November 26, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Aramark makes steady cash by running food, facilities and uniform services, but the stock has run up quickly. Investors are excited after a 14 percent dividend increase and an AI-focused push into senior living, yet the company missed earnings by a penny and a broker cut its price target. Lots more people are buying than usual, so we prefer to wait for a pullback before buying.

Primary drivers

Provides repeat business from food, facility and uniform contracts.
Dividend boost and focus on returning cash attract investors.
New AI services for senior living could add growth.
Earnings miss and target cut show the rally may be fragile.

How it played out

ARMK: thesis partly played out but target was not reached

Lyra published ARMK at $37.58 on 2025-11-26. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $44.20, but it also preferred a pullback before buying. It pointed to repeat business from food, facility and uniform contracts, a 14 percent dividend increase, cash returns, senior living services tied to artificial intelligence, an earnings miss, and a broker target cut.

Inside the window, ARMK rose to a $42.94 peak on 2026-02-11, a 14.3% gain. It stayed below the $44.20 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $40.57 on 2026-02-24. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 1, 2026, Aramark took over food service at the University at Albany after the prior provider's contract expired. On Jan. 15, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.K. competition authority told Aramark to sell Entier after reviewing the acquisition.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARMK signals