NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 24, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 26, 2025
NVIDIA is viewed as the strongest AI infrastructure pick for the next three months. Its financials and momentum look much better than average, and the price recently pulled back into a phase where buyers often step in. News of big increases in AI server shipments backs the data center growth story; a large shareholder selling adds short-term swings but doesn't change the long-term case.
Primary drivers
- Strong demand for AI data center chips and GPU leadership
- Price recently pulled back to a zone where buyers may re-enter
- Momentum and composite scores are clearly better than the market
- Large shareholder sale adds volatility but the growth story stays intact
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after a 7.1% peak gain
Lyra published NVDA on 2025-11-26 at 181.64 as a short-term thesis with 36% expected growth and a 247.02 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence data center chips, GPU leadership, a pullback into the 175.98 to 183.98 entry zone, stronger momentum and composite scores than the market, and a large shareholder sale that could add volatility.
Inside the window from 2025-11-26 to 2026-02-24, NVDA rose, but not enough. It peaked at 194.49 on 2026-01-30, a 7.1% gain, and never reached 247.02. It ended at 192.85. The thesis partially played out on direction, because the stock finished above 181.64. It missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-26, Nvidia announced open-source Earth-2 weather and climate models for scientists, businesses, and governments.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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