Burford Capital Ltd. (BUR) — closed signal from November 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 23, 2026 — +4.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 25, 2025
Shares fell about a third in three months and now trade near half the analyst estimate of fair value, so this is a contrarian idea. Recent quarter had $69.8M sales but a $20.3M loss, showing results jump up and down by case. Market sentiment is extremely positive and short-term indicators show a quick bounce, so buy slowly on drops over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Shares trade near half an $18.70 fair value after a three month 33% drop.
- Q3 had $69.8M in sales but a $20.3M loss, showing uneven results.
- Very high sentiment could reverse if confidence returns, lifting price.
- Short-term indicators look extreme, so use staged buys to limit risk.
How it played out
BUR: target was not reached
Lyra published BUR at $9.25 on 2025-11-25 with a short-term thesis for 45% growth. The thesis pointed to shares near half an $18.70 fair value estimate after a three month 33% drop, Q3 sales of $69.8M with a $20.3M loss, very high sentiment, and short-term indicators that looked extreme.
Inside the window, BUR rose but did not reach the $13.41 target. The peak was $10.10 on 2026-01-22, a 9.2% gain. It ended the window at $9.65 on 2026-02-23. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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