Burford Capital Ltd. (BUR) — closed signal from November 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 23, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 25, 2025
Shares fell about a third in three months and now trade near half the analyst estimate of fair value, so this is a contrarian idea. Recent quarter had $69.8M sales but a $20.3M loss, showing results jump up and down by case. Market sentiment is extremely positive and short-term indicators show a quick bounce, so buy slowly on drops over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Shares trade near half an $18.70 fair value after a three month 33% drop.
- Q3 had $69.8M in sales but a $20.3M loss, showing uneven results.
- Very high sentiment could reverse if confidence returns, lifting price.
- Short-term indicators look extreme, so use staged buys to limit risk.
How it played out
BUR: target was not reached
Lyra published BUR at $9.25 on 2025-11-25 with a short-term thesis for 45% growth. The thesis pointed to shares near half an $18.70 fair value estimate after a three month 33% drop, Q3 sales of $69.8M with a $20.3M loss, very high sentiment, and short-term indicators that looked extreme.
Inside the window, BUR rose but did not reach the $13.41 target. The peak was $10.10 on 2026-01-22, a 9.2% gain. It ended the window at $9.65 on 2026-02-23. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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