Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$171.42 Published $217.69 Target $191.55 Window close $194.49 Peak
$159.98 – $174.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$171.42Published — price the day we called it
$217.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$194.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$191.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$194.49
peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$191.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 25, 2025 – February 23, 2026

The thesis — published November 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+27%
over the measurement window
Target price
$217.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$159.98 – $174.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$171.42
published November 25, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is the main maker of chips used to run AI and cloud services, and current demand from big cloud customers looks strong. Some competitive news briefly pushed the stock down, but other reports show growing AI spending. The stock is trading below recent trend, so buying a bit in the $160-$175 range could be a tactical way to add exposure while risk is managed.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in GPUs for AI data centers, gaming and other workloads.
  • Possible competition from Google TPUs raises near-term risk.
  • Strong AI-related growth at Alibaba and Zoom supports demand.
  • Short-term momentum is weak, creating a tactical buying opportunity.

How it played out

NVDA: target missed after a 13.5% peak gain

Lyra published NVDA on 2025-11-25 at $171.42, with expected growth of 27% and a target of $217.69. The thesis pointed to Nvidia's lead in chips for artificial intelligence data centers, gaming, and other workloads. It also pointed to possible Google TPU competition, strong artificial intelligence growth at Alibaba and Zoom, and weak short-term momentum as a tactical entry setup.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to $194.49 on 2026-01-30, a 13.5% peak gain. It stayed below the $217.69 target. The stock ended at $191.55 on 2026-02-23. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 15, 2025, Nvidia announced Nemotron 3 and the acquisition of SchedMD, according to TechRadar. On Jan. 5, 2026, The Verge reported that Nvidia launched the Vera Rubin computing platform at CES 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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