Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) — closed signal from November 25, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 23, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 59 days.
The thesis — published November 25, 2025
Equinox is moving from building to producing after the Valentine mine started commercial output. Early reports show the plant is running at about 80 percent and recovering over 93 percent of the gold, which supports expectations for higher production and cash flow by 2026. A large investor sold shares, easing selling pressure, so buying near the cited band may offer upside if the mine continues to ramp and gold stays strong.
Primary drivers
- Valentine is in commercial production with ~80% throughput and >93% recovery.
- Planned ramp to full capacity by 2026 should boost annual output and cash flow.
- Positive market sentiment and momentum make EQX stand out among peers.
- Large shareholder selling in Q3 reduced potential selling pressure.
How it played out
EQX: target reached in 59 days
Lyra published EQX at 12.71 on November 25, 2025, with expected growth of 28% and a target of 16.27. The thesis pointed to Valentine moving into commercial production, with the plant running at about 80 percent throughput and recovering over 93 percent of the gold. It also pointed to a planned ramp to full capacity by 2026, positive momentum, and reduced selling pressure after a large shareholder sold shares in Q3.
Inside the window, EQX reached the target in 59 days. It peaked at 17.65 on February 20, 2026, for a 38.9% gain. It ended at 16.81. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On January 23, 2026, Equinox Gold said it completed the sale of its Brazil operations for total cash consideration of US$1.015 billion and paid down more than US$800 million of debt. On February 18, 2026, the company reported Q4 gold production of 247,024 ounces and said Valentine contributed more than 23,000 ounces in Q4.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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