NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 24, 2025
NVIDIA looks like a good rebound trade over the next three months because its core business is strong and demand for data center GPUs is very high. A big new Microsoft-Anthropic deal boosts future chip orders. Political news about U.S. export rules for China makes stock swings bigger, but easing limits would likely help prices over this horizon.
Primary drivers
- Strong demand for data center GPUs driving sales and cash flow
- Very low StochK indicates the pullback may reverse soon
- Microsoft-Anthropic deal increases near-term chip orders
- Possible U.S. export relaxation could lift sales to China
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached by February 22
Lyra published NVDA on November 24, 2025 at $178.65. The thesis expected 36% growth over the short term, with a target of $242.95. It pointed to strong demand for data center GPUs, a very low StochK reading, the Microsoft-Anthropic deal, and possible easing of U.S. export limits for China.
Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $194.49 on January 30, 2026, a gain of 8.9%. It ended the window at $189.82 on February 22, 2026. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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