Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 22, 2026 — +6.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$169.98 – $181.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$178.65Published — price the day we called it

$242.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$194.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$189.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+6.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$189.82

last close inside the window, ended February 22, 2026

Peak price

$194.49

peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+36%

over the measurement window

Target price

$242.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$169.98 – $181.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$178.65

published November 24, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks like a good rebound trade over the next three months because its core business is strong and demand for data center GPUs is very high. A big new Microsoft-Anthropic deal boosts future chip orders. Political news about U.S. export rules for China makes stock swings bigger, but easing limits would likely help prices over this horizon.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for data center GPUs driving sales and cash flow
Very low StochK indicates the pullback may reverse soon
Microsoft-Anthropic deal increases near-term chip orders
Possible U.S. export relaxation could lift sales to China

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached by February 22

Lyra published NVDA on November 24, 2025 at $178.65. The thesis expected 36% growth over the short term, with a target of $242.95. It pointed to strong demand for data center GPUs, a very low StochK reading, the Microsoft-Anthropic deal, and possible easing of U.S. export limits for China.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $194.49 on January 30, 2026, a gain of 8.9%. It ended the window at $189.82 on February 22, 2026. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals