Track record · closed signal

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) — closed signal from November 23, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$78.00 – $82.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$80.78Published — price the day we called it

$99.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$109.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$79.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 61 days.

Peak price

$109.10

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+35.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$79.94

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 23, 2025 – February 21, 2026

The thesis — published November 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+23%

over the measurement window

Target price

$99.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$78.00 – $82.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$80.78

published November 23, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has fallen about 40% over the past year and looks like it may bounce back because investor mood improved after the company won a $99 million Navy contract. That deal suggests steadier government tech work ahead. A short-term rebound toward the low 100s is possible in a few months, but weak business results and budget uncertainty mean keep any position small and cautious.

Primary drivers

A $99M Navy contract adds visible multiyear revenue and steadies future work.
Indicators show selling may be exhausted, suggesting prices could bounce.
Positive investor mood clashes with weak business results and a 40% one year loss.
Valuation debate after big declines means a rebound is possible if execution improves.

How it played out

BAH: target reached in 61 days

Lyra published BAH at $80.78 on 2025-11-23, with an expected 23% short-term move toward $99.36. The thesis pointed to a $99M Navy contract, selling that may have been exhausted, improved investor mood after a 40% one-year loss, and a valuation debate after the decline. It also noted weak business results and budget uncertainty.

Inside the window, BAH reached the target in 61 days. It peaked at $109.10 on 2026-01-23, a 35.1% gain, then fell back to $79.94 by 2026-02-21. The thesis played out on the target, but the move did not hold through the close.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-23, Booz Allen reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share on $2.6 billion in sales. On 2026-01-26, the Treasury Department canceled contracts with Booz Allen after a former employee leaked tax returns.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BAH signals