NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 23, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 21, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 23, 2025
Nvidia fell about 14% from its highs, creating a chance to buy a leading AI company at a lower price. The business and demand from data centers remain strong, and recent memory supply news supports ongoing AI investment. Some short-term price signals are weak, so buying in stages makes sense.
Primary drivers
- Big growth from selling AI data center chips and software.
- A 14% pullback makes the stock cheaper than recent peaks.
- Short-term price signals suggest the stock is oversold now.
- Tight memory supply supports continued spending on AI hardware.
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 178.87 on 2025-11-23. The thesis expected 34% growth to 239.67. It pointed to artificial intelligence data center chips and software, a 14% pullback, oversold short-term price signals, and tight memory supply supporting hardware spending.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to a 194.49 peak on 2026-01-30. That was an 8.7% gain, but it stayed below the 239.67 target. The stock ended the window at 189.82 on 2026-02-21. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the target.
What happened during the window
On January 5, 2026, AP reported that Nvidia said Vera Rubin was in full production, announced Alpamayo for autonomous driving, and named a new Siemens partnership. This was reported during CES and was not shown here as the cause of the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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