Track record · closed signal

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) — closed signal from November 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$79.00 – $82.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$80.78Published — price the day we called it

$97.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$109.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$79.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 51 days.

Peak price

$109.10

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+35.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$79.94

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 22, 2025 – February 20, 2026

The thesis — published November 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$97.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$79.00 – $82.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$80.78

published November 22, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This looks like a short-term rebound trade after the stock fell about 40% over the past year but still keeps winning contracts. Signs point to a bounce instead of a new collapse. The $99M Navy 5G award shows steady defense demand and adds work, but the company's weaker business metrics mean keep positions small and treat this as a trade, not a buy-and-hold.

Primary drivers

Large U.S. government and defense consulting business in cyber, analytics, cloud, and AI.
$99M Navy 5G contract increases backlog and shows strength in secure connectivity.
About 40% one-year share decline left valuation and trading signals oversold.
Uncertainty on valuation makes this a contrarian swing trade with higher risk.

How it played out

BAH: target reached in 51 days

Lyra published BAH at $80.78 on 2025-11-22 as a short-term rebound trade with expected growth of 21%. The thesis pointed to a roughly 40% one-year share decline, continued contract wins, a $99M Navy 5G award, and government work in cyber, analytics, cloud, and artificial intelligence. It also flagged valuation uncertainty and higher risk.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $97.74 target in 51 days. It peaked at $109.10 on 2026-01-23, with a peak gain of 35.1%. By 2026-02-20, it ended at $79.94. The thesis played out, but the move did not hold through the end of the window.

What happened during the window

On January 23, 2026, Booz Allen reported fiscal third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share and sales of $2.6 billion. On January 26, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department canceled Booz Allen contracts after a former employee's tax-return leak case.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BAH signals