Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$169.98 – $184.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$178.87Published — price the day we called it

$236.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$194.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$189.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$194.49

peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+8.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$189.82

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 22, 2025 – February 20, 2026

The thesis — published November 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+32%

over the measurement window

Target price

$236.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$169.98 – $184.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$178.87

published November 22, 2025

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is a leader in AI hardware and software and just reported about 57 billion dollars of sales, with sales more than doubled compared to last year and beating expectations. Strong demand for its data center chips explains the results. The stock fell with a weak market, leaving it deeply sold and creating an opportunity to buy slowly if you can tolerate swings.

Primary drivers

Reported about 57 billion dollars in sales; sales more than doubled compared to last year.
Top position in AI data center chips and software supports strong profits.
Technical readings show the stock is deeply sold, suggesting a reset in price.
Strong earnings in a weak week hint at a rebound when sentiment improves.

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 178.87 on 2025-11-22, with 32% expected growth toward 236.10. The thesis pointed to about 57 billion dollars in sales, sales more than doubled compared with last year, a top position in artificial intelligence data center chips and software, deeply sold technical readings, and strong earnings in a weak week.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but it did not reach 236.10. The peak was 194.49 on 2026-01-30, an 8.7% gain. It ended at 189.82 on 2026-02-20. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the published target. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On January 5, 2026, Nvidia launched its Vera Rubin computing platform at CES 2026. On January 6, 2026, Nvidia introduced DLSS 4.5 and Multi Frame Generation 6X at CES 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals