Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from November 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 10 days.
The thesis — published November 22, 2025
Applied Materials makes the machines and software that chip and display makers use. The stock is in a long-term uptrend but recently pulled back; indicators suggest it may be temporarily oversold, while investor enthusiasm is higher than the company's current fundamentals. With no new company news, the plan is a cautious sized position aiming for a rebound toward prior highs over about three months.
Primary drivers
- Makes essential equipment for big chip and display makers.
- Recent price drop inside a longer uptrend suggests a rebounding chance.
- Investors remain optimistic about semiconductor spending.
- Company results are solid but not as strong as sentiment, so size carefully.
How it played out
AMAT: target reached in 10 days
Lyra published AMAT at $224 on 2025-11-22 with 17% expected growth. The thesis pointed to essential equipment for chip and display makers, a recent price drop inside a longer uptrend, optimism about semiconductor spending, and solid results that were not as strong as sentiment. The target was $262.08.
Inside the window, AMAT reached the target in 10 days. It kept rising to a $377.11 peak on 2026-02-20, with a 68.4% peak gain. It ended at $375.38. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first quarter results with adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on $7.01 billion in revenue. The same report said the company guided the current quarter to $2.64 per share on $7.65 billion in revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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