Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from November 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.29 Published $58.68 Target $53.06 Window close $57.55 Peak
$49.48 – $52.45Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.29Published — price the day we called it
$58.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$53.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$53.06
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 22, 2025 – February 20, 2026

The thesis — published November 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$58.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$49.48 – $52.45
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.29
published November 22, 2025
Confidence
87%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America is a large, liquid bank currently in a short-term dip inside a longer rising trend. Short-term indicators show it is oversold and the stock sits just under its recent average price, which often leads to a rebound over a few months if loan conditions stay healthy. No news, so gains depend on continued fund interest in banks and steady loan quality.

Primary drivers

  • Large retail and corporate bank with many ways to make money.
  • Price pulled back after a strong run, creating a potential rebound setup.
  • Strong market interest and liquidity mean institutions may buy on weakness.
  • Interest rates and stable loans could help valuation improve soon.

How it played out

BAC: target was not reached

Lyra published BAC at $51.29 on 2025-11-22, with 15% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis said the bank was in a short-term dip inside a longer rising trend. It pointed to oversold short-term indicators, strong liquidity, possible institutional buying on weakness, interest rates, and stable loans.

Inside the window, BAC rose to $57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 12.2% peak gain. That stayed below the $58.68 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $53.06. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On January 14, 2026, Bank of America reported adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share on revenue of $28.4 billion. The report said revenue grew 7%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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