Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from November 20, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026 — +6.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published November 20, 2025
Arista's share price has fallen a lot recently, yet many investors still feel positive, which often sets up a short-term recovery. The market for data center networking is expected to grow about 13.5% per year, supporting demand. With fair value estimated near $117, buying in small steps makes sense. As AI data centers keep expanding, a 3-month bounce could happen as selling slows and buying interest returns.
Primary drivers
- Data center networking market is growing steadily each year, boosting sales
- Price dropped sharply, but investor mood stays positive, often sparking rebounds
- New AI data centers need more networking gear, lifting orders for Arista
- Price vs value suggests buying in smaller steps is the prudent approach
How it played out
ANET: rebound came close, target was missed
Lyra published ANET at 130.55 on 2025-11-20 with an 18% expected gain and a 154.05 target. The thesis pointed to a recent price drop, still-positive investor mood, steady data center networking demand at about 13.5% per year, and more networking gear demand from artificial intelligence data centers.
Inside the window, ANET rose to 151.8 on 2026-01-28, a 16.3% peak gain. That was close, but it stayed below the 154.05 target. It never got there. By 2026-02-18, the stock ended at 139.54. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-13, Investor's Business Daily reported that Arista had topped fourth-quarter 2025 expectations and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook from 20% to 25%. The article also said the company expected artificial-intelligence-related sales to double.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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