Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from November 20, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 19 days.
The thesis — published November 20, 2025
Lam Research looks ready for a short-term bounce after a sharp pullback. Investor mood is improving, and profit per share is expected to grow much faster than most rivals, which can support the stock. The overall chip cycle is healthy, and spending on AI factories should help new orders. The near-term trend is still soft, so buying in small steps around $150-$155 aims to catch a 3-month recovery as confidence returns.
Primary drivers
- Earnings per share expected to grow faster than most chip peers.
- Shares look weak now while investor mood is turning more positive.
- AI-related factory spending should lift equipment orders over time.
- Use stepped buys near $150-$155 to handle timing risk and volatility.
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 19 days
Lyra published LRCX on November 20, 2025 at $152.73. The thesis called for an 8% short-term recovery to $164.67 over a 3-month window. It pointed to faster profit per share growth than most chip peers, improving investor mood after weakness, healthy chip-cycle conditions, and factory spending tied to artificial intelligence. It also framed $150-$155 as the stepped-buy area.
The stock reached the target in 19 days. Inside the window, it rose as high as $251.87 on January 30, 2026, with a peak gain of 64.9%. It ended the window on February 18, 2026 at $240.09. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On January 28, 2026, Lam Research reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of $5.34 billion, and it guided for $1.35 per share on revenue of $5.7 billion for the current quarter. On January 29, 2026, Barron's reported that the shares rose to $247.16 in early trading after that report.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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