The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from November 20, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published November 20, 2025
Schwab looks like a solid way to invest in finance: the price has been knocked down, investor mood is improving, and the business is healthy. Q3 sales rose 26.6% compared to last year, and customers report higher satisfaction with its AI helpers, which should boost digital use and new assets. The recent average price is steadying, and there are signs more buyers are stepping in.
Primary drivers
- Q3 sales rose and more customers are using Schwab's digital tools often
- Price has fallen recently while investor mood is improving and steadier
- Recent average price is leveling out, making pullbacks more buyable
- Bringing in more client assets and clearer profits from interest
How it played out
SCHW: peak stayed just below the target
Lyra published SCHW at 93.68 on 2025-11-20, with a short-term thesis for 15% growth toward 107.73. The thesis pointed to Q3 sales rising 26.6%, heavier use of digital tools, better investor mood after a price pullback, a steadier recent average price, more client assets, and clearer profits from interest.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to 107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 14.7% peak gain. It stayed below the 107.73 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-18 it ended at 95.38. The thesis came close, but it did not fully play out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-21, Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. WSJ reported net income of $2.46 billion, earnings of $1.33 per share, and total revenue of $6.34 billion. Investors.com reported adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share and fourth-quarter revenue of $6.336 billion, both slightly below analyst estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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