Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from November 20, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026 — +1.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.68Published — price the day we called it

$107.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$95.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+1.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$95.38

last close inside the window, ended February 18, 2026

Peak price

$107.49

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$107.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $95.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.68

published November 20, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like a solid way to invest in finance: the price has been knocked down, investor mood is improving, and the business is healthy. Q3 sales rose 26.6% compared to last year, and customers report higher satisfaction with its AI helpers, which should boost digital use and new assets. The recent average price is steadying, and there are signs more buyers are stepping in.

Primary drivers

Q3 sales rose and more customers are using Schwab's digital tools often
Price has fallen recently while investor mood is improving and steadier
Recent average price is leveling out, making pullbacks more buyable
Bringing in more client assets and clearer profits from interest

How it played out

SCHW: peak stayed just below the target

Lyra published SCHW at 93.68 on 2025-11-20, with a short-term thesis for 15% growth toward 107.73. The thesis pointed to Q3 sales rising 26.6%, heavier use of digital tools, better investor mood after a price pullback, a steadier recent average price, more client assets, and clearer profits from interest.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to 107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 14.7% peak gain. It stayed below the 107.73 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-18 it ended at 95.38. The thesis came close, but it did not fully play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. WSJ reported net income of $2.46 billion, earnings of $1.33 per share, and total revenue of $6.34 billion. Investors.com reported adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share and fourth-quarter revenue of $6.336 billion, both slightly below analyst estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals