Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$226.11 – $230.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$230.15Published — price the day we called it

$268.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$376.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$359.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

Peak price

$376.32

peak on February 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+63.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$359.13

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 19, 2025 – February 17, 2026

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$268.75

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$226.11 – $230.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$230.15

published November 19, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AMAT looks beaten down while investor mood is improving. Recent news shows profits rising even with slightly lower sales. Nvidia's results can sway chip stocks soon. The recent average price seems to be turning up, while other signs are slower to confirm. Buying in small steps aims for a move back toward typical levels over about 3 months. Export rules and chip-cycle timing are risks, so keep risk tight while focusing on the AI equipment story.

Primary drivers

Shares look beaten down but investor mood is improving, reducing near-term pressure.
Profits are rising even though sales are a bit softer, showing solid execution.
Spending on AI chip factories should keep demand for AMAT's tools steady.
Nvidia's results often steer chip suppliers, which can lift interest in AMAT.

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published AMAT at $230.15 with expected growth of 17% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down share price, improving investor mood, rising profits despite softer sales, spending on artificial intelligence chip factories, and Nvidia's results as a possible driver of interest in chip suppliers.

The market reached the $268.75 target in 15 days. AMAT later peaked at $376.32 on 2026-02-13, with a peak gain of 63.5%. It ended the window at $359.13. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on sales of $7.01 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. On 2026-02-12, Tom's Hardware reported that Applied Materials agreed to pay a $252 million civil penalty tied to alleged export violations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals