Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026 — +32.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.92 Published $40.85 Target $46.18 Window close $54.60 Peak
$34.00 – $35.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.92Published — price the day we called it
$40.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$54.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$46.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close
+32.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+56.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$46.18
last close inside the window, ended February 17, 2026
Peak price
$54.60
peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
13

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.00 – $35.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.92
published November 19, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Intel looks like a beaten-down company trying to fix itself. A new partnership with Nvidia and a reported $5B investment lifted the stock and adds hope for AI and data center growth. But rivals AMD and ARM are taking CPU share and the core numbers are still weak. After a big slide, a 3-month bounce seems possible, yet results must improve. That is why a careful, step-by-step buying plan makes sense.

Primary drivers

  • Shares fell hard, but optimism is rising among many investors right now
  • New Nvidia partnership suggests Intel's AI plans are being taken seriously
  • Risk: AMD and ARM keep winning more CPU customers from Intel this year
  • Possible short-term bounce as price normalizes after a sharp drop

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 13 days

Lyra published INTC at $34.92 on 2025-11-19 with 17% expected growth and a $40.85 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down company trying to repair itself, a Nvidia partnership with a reported $5B investment, hopes around artificial intelligence and data center growth, and the chance of a short-term bounce after a sharp drop. It also named AMD and ARM share gains as risks.

Inside the window, INTC reached the target in 13 days. The stock later peaked at $54.60 on 2026-01-22, up 56.4%, and ended at $46.18 on 2026-02-17. The thesis played out and then some.

What happened during the window

On January 23, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that Intel's fourth-quarter 2025 results included $13.7 billion in revenue and a $600 million quarterly net loss. The same report said Intel gave a first-quarter 2026 revenue outlook of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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