Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
Shares of Berkshire have fallen recently even though the company is sitting on more cash than ever and is still purchasing its own stock. Because the company itself is strong, the lower price seems to be a temporary market mood swing, not a real problem with the business. If buybacks pick up and its many holdings keep earning steadily, the price could climb about 9 percent over the next three months toward a fair value. That potential rise would simply close the gap between today's price and what we think the shares are worth based on profits, cash, and history.
Primary drivers
- A rare low momentum signal hints the market has pushed this high-quality stock too low.
- Demand stays high even after a small share sale, showing investors still want the stock.
- Earnings from many lines of business plus huge cash and ongoing buybacks limit downside risk.
- Next quarterly report may reveal bigger buybacks, which could draw new attention to the stock.
How it played out
BRK-B: thesis partly played out but target was missed
Lyra published BRK-B at 477.18 on 2025-07-14 with a short-term thesis for 9% growth toward 520.13. The thesis pointed to a rare low momentum signal, steady investor demand after a small share sale, diversified earnings, huge cash, ongoing buybacks, and the next quarterly report as a possible place for bigger buybacks to appear.
Inside the window, the stock rose to 507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.4% peak gain. That was still below the 520.13 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-12, BRK-B ended at 489.13. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On August 2, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter results. AP reported profit of 12.37 billion and a 3.76 billion writedown tied to Kraft Heinz. Barron's reported operating profits of 11.2 billion and said Berkshire did not repurchase stock in the second quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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