Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$294.61 – $299.61Entry zone — fair-value band

$299.13Published — price the day we called it

$352.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$302.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$349.00

peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$302.02

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 19, 2025 – February 17, 2026

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$352.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$294.61 – $299.61

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$299.13

published November 19, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's recent dip fits a buy-the-dip approach. The recent average price is still trending up, and short-term signs suggest a bounce could be near even if a slower signal has not turned yet. New Google Cloud deals with OpenText and Smarsh strengthen AI, security, and compliance tools. With strong cash and steady ads, a slow 3-month climb toward past highs looks reasonable as investor mood steadies.

Primary drivers

Recent average price rising; short-term signals look washed out
New cloud and security partnerships expand the customer base
Strong cash and steady ad business support stability
Big, trusted company that many investors like to buy on dips

How it played out

GOOGL: thesis rose but never reached the target

Lyra published GOOGL on 2025-11-19 at 299.13, with expected growth of 18% toward 352.74. The thesis pointed to a recent dip, a rising recent average price, washed-out short-term signals, new Google Cloud and security partnerships, strong cash, steady ads, and investor interest in buying a large trusted company on dips.

Inside the window, GOOGL peaked at 349 on 2026-02-03, for a 16.7% gain. That was close, but it stayed below 352.74. It never got there. The signal ended at 302.02 on 2026-02-17. Verdict: the thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-23, TechRadar reported that Alphabet had agreed to buy Intersect Power for $4.75 billion. On 2026-02-04, The Guardian reported Alphabet's fourth-quarter results, including $113.83 billion in revenue and $34.5 billion in profit.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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