Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026 — +1.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.89 Published $59.88 Target $52.74 Window close $57.55 Peak
$50.72 – $51.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.89Published — price the day we called it
$59.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$52.74
last close inside the window, ended February 17, 2026
Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.72 – $51.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.89
published November 19, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

BAC looks like a bounce candidate with lots of trading activity and a positive mood. The company just announced a global link with David Beckham, which should help the brand. A survey shows investors worry some tech names spent too much on AI, which could push money toward banks. Because timing tools can lag, buy in steps. In a steady market, the price could drift back toward its typical middle range in about 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Price fell hard, but mood is positive; buyers may step in soon
  • New David Beckham tie-up should boost attention and loyalty worldwide
  • If AI stocks feel too popular, investors may move money back to banks
  • Many business lines spread risk and help steady profits through cycles

How it played out

BAC: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published BAC at 51.89 on 2025-11-19 with 16% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a bounce after a hard fall, positive mood, the David Beckham tie-up, possible rotation away from crowded artificial intelligence stocks, and the steadiness of varied business lines.

Inside the window, BAC rose to 57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 10.9% peak gain. The 59.88 target was not reached. It ended the window at 52.74 on 2026-02-17. The call partly worked because the stock rose, but the published target missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter results. MarketWatch reported adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share on revenue of $28.4 billion, ahead of estimates of 96 cents and $27.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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