Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$90.40 Published $108.48 Target $70.53 Window close $92.78 Peak
$88.50 – $91.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$90.40Published — price the day we called it
$108.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$92.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$70.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$92.78
peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$70.53
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 19, 2025 – February 17, 2026

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$108.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$88.50 – $91.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$90.40
published November 19, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber may be set for a near-term rebound. The price fell sharply, yet buyer interest is still strong, and trading remains very active. New delivery partnerships using robots and third parties (Coco Robotics with Shake Shack, plus Kroger) expand its potential customer base and strengthen results. Tesla's Arizona robotaxi permit bears watching, but Uber's big network and varied demand support a 3-month recovery as short-term measures normalize.

Primary drivers

  • Price likely overreacted downward, but investor mood stays constructive
  • Robot and partner delivery deals grow the potential customer base
  • High trading activity makes entering and exiting positions easier
  • Could drift back toward its usual recent trading range

How it played out

UBER: target not reached before the window ended

Lyra published UBER on 2025-11-19 at 90.40. The thesis expected 20% growth to 108.48 over a short-term window. It pointed to a sharp price drop that may have overreached, constructive investor mood, active trading, robot and partner delivery deals, and a possible move back toward its recent trading range.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 92.78 on 2025-12-08, a 2.6% gain. That stayed below 108.48. It never got there. By the end of the window on 2026-02-17, the stock was 70.53. The rebound thesis missed on price and direction.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide expanded their Abu Dhabi robotaxi service to fully driverless vehicles in a limited Yas Island area. This was an announced deployment during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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