Track record · closed signal

Informatica Inc. (INFA) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INFA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.79 Published $30.99 Target $24.79 Window close $24.79 Peak
$24.00 – $25.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.79Published — price the day we called it
$30.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$24.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$24.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Missed

Never rose above the publication price inside the window.

Peak price
$24.79
peak on November 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$24.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$30.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$24.00 – $25.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.79
published November 18, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The company beat expectations on Nov 5 and, on Nov 12, announced a new partnership with Emirates, both showing it is executing well. On Nov 13, a report raised doubts about when a possible Salesforce deal might happen, which knocked the price down more than seems deserved. If that worry fades and the recent average price steadies, we see a chance for a rebound over the next 0-3 months, especially on dips.

Primary drivers

  • Recent quarter beat forecasts, signaling strong day-to-day execution.
  • Emirates partnership is fresh proof customers value their data tools.
  • Uncertainty about timing of a possible deal is pressuring the stock.
  • Selloff seems overdone, so potential upside may be larger than downside.

How it played out

INFA: the thesis did not play out

Lyra published INFA at $24.79 on 2025-11-18 with expected growth of 25% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a recent quarter that beat forecasts, a new Emirates partnership, pressure from uncertainty around a possible Salesforce deal, and a selloff that seemed overdone.

Inside the window from 2025-11-18 to 2026-02-16, INFA peaked at $24.79 on 2025-11-18, with a peak gain of 0%. It stayed below the $30.99 target and ended at $24.79. The rebound did not arrive. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On November 18, 2025, Salesforce said it had completed its acquisition of Informatica. Salesforce said the transaction had an equity value of about $8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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