Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) — closed signal from November 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026 — -11% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 18, 2025
A major research firm just started coverage with a $60 goal, and separate pricing work suggests the stock could be worth more. Recent notes also point to steady growth in the number of cartons sold. After a sharp slide, prices often bounce once heavy selling cools. The business looks healthy, so buying near today's levels aims for a 0-3 month recovery toward the range where it traded before.
Primary drivers
- New Buy rating and $60 target from a major research firm this month
- Valuation work indicates shares could trade higher from current levels
- Price fell hard recently, setting up a possible short-term rebound
- Store sales of its eggs keep growing, showing steady customer demand
How it played out
VITL: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published VITL at 31.91 on 2025-11-18, looking for 20% growth toward 38.29. The thesis pointed to a new Buy rating with a 60 goal, valuation work that suggested more upside, a hard recent price fall that could cool, and continued carton sales growth.
Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 36.10 on 2025-12-15, with a 13.1% gain, then ended the window at 28.41 on 2026-02-16. The thesis partly played out. It got a rebound, but not enough.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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