Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$88.00 – $92.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.31Published — price the day we called it

$111.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$92.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$69.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$92.92

peak on November 18, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$69.99

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$88.00 – $92.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.31

published November 18, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber may rebound over the next 0-3 months. Two fresh positives: Global Payments picked Uber Eats as its go-to delivery partner, which can lift order volume, and a softer job market could push more people to drive or deliver, easing shortages. Short-term price readings look washed out, but trend strength is still weak. If the price steadies and turns up, it could climb back toward recent highs.

Primary drivers

Short-term readings suggest the stock fell too far and may snap back.
Preferred status can steer more restaurant orders to Uber Eats.
Softer hiring means more people may choose gig work, adding drivers.
Weak trend now, but it can improve if buying picks up and price firms.

How it played out

UBER: target was never reached

Lyra published UBER at $91.31 on 2025-11-18 with an expected growth of 22%. The thesis looked for a short-term rebound toward $111.4. It pointed to washed-out short-term readings, preferred delivery status with Global Payments, a softer job market that could add drivers, and a weak trend that needed buying to improve.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $92.92 on 2025-11-18, a 1.8% gain. That stayed well below $111.4. It never reached the target. By 2026-02-16, the stock ended at $69.99. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter results, including adjusted earnings of 71 cents per share and gross bookings of $54.14 billion. The same day, Uber named Balaji Krishnamurthy as its next finance chief, effective 2026-02-16.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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