Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from July 14, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025 — +6.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.20 Published $106.16 Target $101.63 Window close $105.89 Peak
$93.18 – $95.16Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.20Published — price the day we called it
$106.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$105.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$101.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 93% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+6.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$101.63
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2025
Peak price
$105.89
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$106.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.18 – $95.16
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.20
published July 14, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Online sales jumped 22%, proving Walmart’s mix of stores and website is working well. The stock looks cheap after a sharp dip, while shopper confidence stays high. Fresh lines such as ScentMatch fragrances and recently bought Vizio TVs should lift profits right before the busy back-to-school season. As investors hunt for steady growth in shaky markets, we think the share price could rise roughly 12% over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • A 22% jump in online sales proves the plan to blend stores and website is working.
  • Share price dipped more than usual for this steady retailer, so the discount may be brief.
  • Large investors are snapping up shares, showing growing confidence during the pullback.
  • New products like ScentMatch and Vizio TVs widen appeal and could boost profit margins.

How it played out

WMT: thesis rose close to target but missed

Lyra published WMT at 95.2 on 2025-07-14 with a short-term view for roughly 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a 22% jump in online sales, a sharp dip in the share price, large investors buying during the pullback, and newer products such as ScentMatch and Vizio TVs as possible support.

Inside the window, the stock rose to 105.89 on 2025-09-17. That was an 11.2% peak gain, but it stayed below the 106.16 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-12, WMT ended at 101.63. The thesis mostly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-21, Walmart reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $177.40 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.68. The same report said global eCommerce sales rose 25%, and Walmart raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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