Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 42 days.
The thesis — published July 1, 2025
BTU has dropped about 25 %, settling near $13, a level often watched because it matches the stock’s long-term price trend. A Senate plan that would reward coal sent the shares up 5 % and triggered far more options trading than usual, hinting at renewed interest. The firm makes strong free cash flow and keeps buying back its own stock. If the pattern of higher lows holds, a move back toward the former $19 peak looks possible before summer power demand cools.
Primary drivers
- Senate bill favoring coal sparks talk of higher demand and pushes the stock up.
- Drop to a key long-term price level with rising lows hints buyers are active.
- Company generates lots of cash, so it can keep buying back its own shares.
- Options trading jumped far above normal, showing traders expect bigger moves.
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 42 days
On July 1, Lyra published a short-term BTU thesis at $13.33. It expected 38% growth toward $18.28. The thesis pointed to a coal-friendly Senate bill, a drop near a long-term price level, rising lows, cash generation for buybacks, and options trading that had jumped far above normal.
Inside the window, BTU reached the target in 42 days. The stock kept rising and peaked at $26.90 on September 29, with a peak gain of 101.8%. It ended the window at $26.74. The thesis played out and then went further than the target.
What happened during the window
On August 19, 2025, Peabody called off its agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American said it would start arbitration and seek damages.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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