Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026 — +1.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$90.00 – $93.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.65Published — price the day we called it

$109.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$93.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+1.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$93.72

last close inside the window, ended February 16, 2026

Peak price

$107.49

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$109.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$90.00 – $93.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.65

published November 18, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look beaten down and may be settling into a steady zone. Recent industry notes (11/17) showed strong October activity at similar firms, and Schwab looks cheaper than rivals with richer price tags, which supports a bounce. The core business remains solid. Over the next 0-3 months, the market could lift the valuation if trends improve and the recent average price stops falling while momentum steadies.

Primary drivers

Stock looks washed out, hinting it may be settling before a potential rise
Active clients and growing assets can help drive steadier fee revenue
Shares are priced lower than many peers, offering better value today
If overall tone improves, investors may be willing to pay a higher price

How it played out

SCHW: thesis rose close, but target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-11-18 at $92.65 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to a washed-out stock, active clients, growing assets, lower pricing than peers, and a possible valuation lift if tone improved and momentum steadied.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 16% gain. The target was $109.33, and the stock never reached it. It ended the window at $93.72. The thesis partly played out: the direction was right, but the stated target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. Reports said adjusted earnings were $1.39 per share and revenue was $6.34 billion. On 2025-12-18, Barron's reported that Schwab was phasing out Schwab Intelligent Portfolios Premium in early 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals