Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.51 Published $40.52 Target $40.01 Window close $40.50 Peak
$35.15 – $36.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.51Published — price the day we called it
$40.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$40.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$40.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$40.50
peak on February 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$40.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$35.15 – $36.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.51
published November 18, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Latest quarter showed profit per share from operations up 18%, and the company put $495M to work in new deals, showing real momentum. Price action looks healthy: lots more people are buying than usual, and the recent average price is trending up. Many healthcare property stocks still trade below the value of their real estate, so as borrowing costs steady, investors may favor stronger names like this over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • 18% rise in cash-style earnings per share shows business is strengthening
  • $495M of new deals expands future rent, adds tenants, and supports growth
  • Price signals are firm: more buyers than usual and a rising recent average price
  • If rates calm, shares may move closer to underlying property values

How it played out

CTRE: the target was not reached

Lyra published CTRE at $36.51 on 2025-11-18 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to an 18% rise in cash-style earnings per share, $495M of new deals, firmer price signals, and the chance that calmer rates would help stronger healthcare property stocks move closer to property values.

Inside the window, CTRE rose but did not reach the $40.52 target. The peak was $40.5 on 2026-02-13, with a peak gain of 10.9%. It ended the window at $40.01 on 2026-02-16. The thesis partially played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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