Track record · closed signal

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

EFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.71 – $13.19Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.40Published — price the day we called it

$14.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 45% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$14.12

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$12.94

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.71 – $13.19

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.40

published November 18, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

In the latest quarter, sales grew 23.6% thanks to creating and buying more loans, which boosted earnings from interest. The price trend is improving, with the recent average price rising and buyers getting more active. Compared with similar firms, EFC looks stronger. If interest rates stay steadier and investor mood remains positive, the next 0-3 months could bring ongoing income plus a small move closer to book value.

Primary drivers

Sales rose 23.6% last quarter from packaging loans and making more loans.
Price trend looks stronger as the recent average price rises and momentum builds.
Optimistic investor mood could lift how the market values the shares.
If rates stay steady, the stock price may move closer to reported book value.

How it played out

EFC: target was not reached

Lyra published EFC at 13.40 on 2025-11-18 with 12% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to 23.6% sales growth last quarter from packaging loans and making more loans, a stronger price trend, improving buyer activity, optimistic investor mood, and a possible move closer to reported book value if rates stayed steady.

Inside the window, EFC rose but did not reach 14.73. The peak was 14.12 on 2026-01-22, with a 5.4% peak gain. It never got there. By 2026-02-16, the stock ended at 12.94. The thesis partially played out, then faded before the window closed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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