Track record · closed signal

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — closed signal from July 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEGA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$50.53 Published $65.62 Target $53.69 Window close $60.94 Peak
$49.40 – $50.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$50.53Published — price the day we called it
$65.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$53.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$60.94
peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$53.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 14, 2025 – October 12, 2025

The thesis — published July 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$65.62
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$49.40 – $50.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$50.53
published July 14, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pegasystems inked a five-year deal with Amazon Web Services to update clients with AI tools. Just days earlier the firm reported sales up 44%, far better than Wall Street expected, proving its software is in high demand. Despite the good news, the share price is still near recent lows, giving investors a chance to buy before most people notice. More contract wins and the next earnings report could lift the stock sharply within three months. This mix of fast growth and low price rarely lasts, so the window is likely short.

Primary drivers

  • Five-year AWS deal confirms Pega is a key partner for companies upgrading to AI.
  • Sales more than doubled versus last year, hinting that official forecasts may rise soon.
  • Trading activity suggests the stock is near a low point, offering room to climb with limited downside.
  • Very positive market mood could draw large investment funds and push the price higher.

How it played out

PEGA: rose 20.6% but missed the target

Lyra published PEGA at $50.53 on July 14, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to a five-year Amazon Web Services deal, recent sales growth, a price near recent lows, and positive market mood as reasons the stock could rise within three months.

Inside the window, PEGA rose to a $60.94 peak on September 24, 2025, for a 20.6% gain. It stayed below the $65.62 target and never reached it. By October 12, 2025, it ended at $53.69. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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