Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from November 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published November 16, 2025
After the stock fell post-earnings, this may be a chance to buy at a discount. Near-term sales may slow, but last quarter beat expectations and analysts raised their fair value estimate. The long-term story still looks solid, helped by steady demand from AI chip makers. Consider buying in steps near the given range and aim for a 0-3 month recovery toward the middle of its recent trading area.
Primary drivers
- Price dropped after earnings, creating a possible bargain for patient buyers
- Fair value estimate was raised even though the stock sold off afterward
- Long-run outlook for the business and stock stays solid, supported by demand
- AI-driven spending on chip-making tools looks steadier than earlier this year
How it played out
AMAT: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published AMAT at $225.57 on 2025-11-16, looking for 18% growth toward $265.65 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a post-earnings drop, a raised fair value estimate, a still-solid long-run business outlook, and steadier demand from artificial intelligence chip makers.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 16 days. It kept rising after that. AMAT peaked at $376.32 on 2026-02-13, with a 66.8% peak gain, and ended the window at $354.91. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on sales of $7.01 billion. On 2026-02-12, the company also agreed to pay a $252 million civil penalty to resolve U.S. export-control allegations tied to past shipments to China.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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