Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from November 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$52.34 Published $59.36 Target $52.55 Window close $57.55 Peak
$50.47 – $52.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$52.34Published — price the day we called it
$59.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 16, 2025 – February 14, 2026

The thesis — published November 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.47 – $52.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$52.34
published November 16, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America looks beaten down but has helpful news behind it. The company beat profit expectations last quarter, and a well-known firm kept a $70 goal. As swings in interest rates calm, what it earns on loans and deposits should steady. We would start small near recent lows and add only if this stock and other bank shares begin to turn up, aiming for a short-term bounce over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out; many sellers may already be finished for now
  • Recent profit beat and a $70 target from a leading Wall Street firm
  • Calmer interest rates can steady what banks earn on loans and deposits
  • Sentiment on bank stocks is improving, drawing more buyers back in

How it played out

BAC: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published BAC at $52.34 on 2025-11-16 with a short-term bounce thesis. It expected 14% growth toward $59.36 over 0-3 months. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, a recent profit beat, a $70 Wall Street goal, calmer interest rates, and improving sentiment on bank stocks.

Inside the window, BAC rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at $57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 10% gain, then ended at $52.55 on 2026-02-14. The move matched part of the bounce thesis, but it stayed below the target. The verdict was partial.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share on revenue of $28.4 billion, above estimates of 96 cents and $27.8 billion. The company said 7% revenue growth came from higher net interest income, asset-management fees, and sales and trading revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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