Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$184.98 – $190.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$190.16Published — price the day we called it

$239.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$195.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$182.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$195.99

peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$182.81

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 16, 2025 – February 14, 2026

The thesis — published November 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$239.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$184.98 – $190.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$190.16

published November 16, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia may see a short-term move around this week's earnings. The stock recently dipped, while more people are buying than usual. Wall Street expects sales to grow more than 50% versus last year. If demand extends beyond the big cloud providers, the dip helps limit risk. We prefer small buys before earnings, adding only if results and guidance confirm strength in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Earnings report this week could drive a short-term move in the stock
Recent dip with growing buyer interest
Leader in AI chips for data centers
Trading volume shows many more buyers than usual

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $190.16 on 2025-11-16, looking for 26% growth toward $239.59 in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to an earnings report that week, a recent dip with growing buyer interest, leadership in data-center artificial intelligence chips, and trading volume that showed many more buyers than usual.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $195.99 on 2025-11-20, a 3.1% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached $239.59. By 2026-02-14, it ended at $182.81. The thesis partly caught a brief move after publication, but the full expected move did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-19, NVIDIA reported quarterly results, including record revenue and data-center sales. In January 2026, coverage said NVIDIA discussed the Vera Rubin platform at CES 2026. These were company events during the window, not explanations for the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals