Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from November 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$94.39 Published $111.38 Target $93.72 Window close $107.49 Peak
$92.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$94.39Published — price the day we called it
$111.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$93.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$107.49
peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$93.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 16, 2025 – February 14, 2026

The thesis — published November 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$111.38
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.00 – $95.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$94.39
published November 16, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks set for a gentle move up because price momentum has turned positive and the business trends back it up. October brought $44.4B of new client money, and S&P raised its outlook to positive after Schwab improved how it handles interest-rate risks. As clients move idle cash back into the market and trading normalizes, profits can grow faster. In a healthy market, we expect a steady climb over the next 0-3 months from dip buys.

Primary drivers

  • Upward price momentum looks solid, with more buyers than usual lately
  • October saw the most new client money on record, a strong vote of trust
  • S&P raised its view to positive, reflecting better interest-rate risk control
  • Clients are moving cash back into markets, with trading activity picking up

How it played out

SCHW: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published SCHW at $94.39 on 2025-11-16 with an 18% expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to positive price momentum, $44.4B of new client money in October, a positive S&P outlook, better interest-rate risk control, clients moving cash back into markets, and trading activity picking up.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 13.9% peak gain. That was below the $111.38 target, so it never got there. By 2026-02-14, it ended at $93.72. The thesis partly played out, but the full target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share and revenue of $6.336 billion. Trading revenue rose 22%, and daily average trading volume rose 31%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals