Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 15, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 15, 2025
Uber's price pulled back after a big run, but the business still looks healthy. Bookings rose 21% compared to last year, and a robotaxi test with partners could open new growth paths. Because the trend is weak now, consider buys near $89-$92 and add only if it climbs back above about $94, which suggests momentum is improving. Over the next 3 months, steady rides and delivery may help, but watch fees, rules, and currency swings.
Primary drivers
- Price fell recently, but customer demand for rides and delivery stays solid.
- News: total bookings rose 21% compared to last year, showing strong activity.
- Robotaxi test with partners could unlock new growth paths over time.
- Plan to add only if price moves back above its recent average near $94.
How it played out
UBER: target was not reached
Lyra published UBER at $91.62 on 2025-11-15 with an 18% expected gain over the short term. The thesis pointed to a recent pullback, steady rides and delivery demand, bookings up 21% from last year, a robotaxi test with partners, and a plan to add only if the price moved back above about $94.
Inside the window, UBER peaked at $92.92 on 2025-11-18, a 1.4% gain. It stayed below the $108.11 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-13, it ended at $69.99. The thesis missed on price.
What happened during the window
On February 4, 2026, Uber reported fourth-quarter revenue rising 20% to $14.37 billion and gross bookings climbing 22% to $54.14 billion. The company also announced a chief financial officer change.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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