Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from November 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$100.30 Published $116.35 Target $110.86 Window close $125.16 Peak
$98.00 – $101.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$100.30Published — price the day we called it
$116.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$125.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$110.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

Peak price
$125.16
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$110.86
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
37
Window
November 15, 2025 – February 13, 2026

The thesis — published November 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$116.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$98.00 – $101.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$100.30
published November 15, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup's price signs look healthier after a pullback, and recent news helps. Approval to sell its Russia unit lowers risk, and a base lending rate cut can lift borrowing demand. In the next three months, steadier interest income plus buybacks/dividends could spark a relief bounce. Main risks are a weak global economy and higher loan losses. Consider adding if daily closes clear $102 and strength continues.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend improving after a pullback; buyers look more active than sellers.
  • Selling the Russia business reduces uncertainty and future legal risks.
  • Lower base lending rates can spur loan and credit card demand and fee income.
  • Share buybacks and dividends add support to returns if profits hold steady.

How it played out

C: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published C at $100.3 on 2025-11-15 with 16% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to an improving price trend after a pullback, less uncertainty from selling the Russia business, lower base lending rates, and support from buybacks and dividends if profits held steady.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $116.35 target in 37 days. It later peaked at $125.16 on 2026-02-09, with a 24.8% peak gain. By 2026-02-13, it ended at $110.86. The thesis played out, and the target was exceeded.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Citigroup reported fourth-quarter 2025 profit of $2.5 billion and revenue of $19.9 billion. The same report said investment banking fees rose 35% to $1.29 billion and that the bank returned $17.5 billion through dividends and buybacks.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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