Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from November 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$218.00 – $223.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$222.85Published — price the day we called it

$267.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$160.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$234.00

peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$160.14

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 15, 2025 – February 13, 2026

The thesis — published November 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$267.42

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$218.00 – $223.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$222.85

published November 15, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle's shares look beaten down after a sharp drop, yet many investors still seem upbeat and the price has started to perk up. Recent talk includes SoftBank selling in Q3 and reports of OpenAI payments to Microsoft, hinting at rising cloud use. We view this as a short-term bounce idea: watch for the price to move back above its recent average and for buying strength to improve. Risks: pricey software peers and possible cloud price pressure.

Primary drivers

Price fell too fast; recent buying interest appears to be picking up again
Oracle Cloud (OCI) could win more AI-related work from customers
News: SoftBank sold shares; OpenAI spend hints at rising cloud demand
Add only after proof appears; avoid acting before clear signals

How it played out

ORCL: short-term bounce stayed below target

Lyra published ORCL at $222.85 on 2025-11-15 as a short-term bounce idea. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to a fast prior drop, early signs of buying interest, possible Oracle Cloud demand tied to artificial intelligence work, SoftBank selling shares, and reported OpenAI payments to Microsoft as hints of rising cloud use.

Inside the window, ORCL rose to a peak of $234 on 2025-11-20, a 5% gain. That stayed below the $267.42 target. It never got there. By 2026-02-13, the stock ended at $160.14. The thesis partially caught a brief bounce, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 10, 2025, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $16.1 billion and remaining performance obligations of $523 billion. On Dec. 15, 2025, TechRadar reported Oracle had disclosed $248 billion of additional lease commitments as of Nov. 30, 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORCL signals