Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025 — +103.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 25 days.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
A recent tax break that helps coal pushed the stock up 13%, and nearly everyone is upbeat right now. The sharp jump means the price may have run ahead of itself, and coal as a business still faces long-term decline. If the share price drifts back toward $14.8-$15.2, there could be a short-term chance to profit, but larger industry and news risks keep us in wait-and-see mode.
Primary drivers
- Tax break gave coal stocks a quick 13% boost, changing the mood to positive.
- Very high optimism and speed show traders are focused on short-term gains.
- Heavy buying volume signals many more buyers than usual are stepping in.
- Coal use keeps shrinking and rule changes can swing fast, limiting long runs.
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 25 days
Lyra published BTU at $15.15 on 2025-07-14, with a short-term setup looking for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a coal tax break, a 13% stock jump, unusually strong optimism, heavy buying volume, and the risk that coal use kept shrinking. It also said the setup worked best if the price drifted back toward $14.8-$15.2.
Inside the window, BTU reached the target in 25 days. The stock later peaked at $33.20 on 2025-10-09, with a 119.2% gain. It ended the window at $30.81. The published thesis played out, and then went much further than the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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