Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from November 15, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 44 days.
The thesis — published November 15, 2025
Micron makes memory chips used in AI. Demand for its high-speed HBM chips is so strong that next year's supply is already spoken for. The stock has jumped 182% this year, so some worry it may be pricey and bumpy in the near term. A careful plan makes sense: start small and add only if the price acts well. Over the next 3 months, tighter chip supply and AI server building help, but recent swings and valuation keep risk in view.
Primary drivers
- HBM chip supply is already booked because AI demand is very strong
- The price looks steadier now, and investor mood is clearly positive
- Big price jump sparks debate about whether the stock is now expensive
- Buy in steps and add only if price action shows improving momentum
How it played out
MU: target reached in 44 days
Lyra published MU at $246.73 on 2025-11-15 with an expected 18% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to memory chips used in artificial intelligence, HBM supply already booked, tighter chip supply, server building, positive investor mood, and the risk that a 182% yearly jump had made the stock expensive and bumpy.
Inside the window, MU reached the $291.02 target in 44 days. It kept rising to a $455.50 peak on 2026-01-30, a peak gain of 84.6%. By 2026-02-13, it ended at $411.66. The thesis played out and went well past the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-03, Micron said it would wind down its Crucial consumer business by the end of February 2026 and focus on enterprise and artificial intelligence markets. On 2025-12-17, Micron reported fiscal first-quarter results, including adjusted earnings of $4.78 per share on revenue of $13.64 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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