Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from November 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.73 Published $47.75 Target $15.80 Window close $40.99 Peak
$34.50 – $36.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.73Published — price the day we called it
$47.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$40.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$40.99
peak on December 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$15.80
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 14, 2025 – February 12, 2026

The thesis — published November 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$47.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.50 – $36.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.73
published November 14, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HIMS dropped hard and now looks washed out. The company just launched a home lab testing program that could bring in more customers and extra sales per user. Signals of trend strength are still weak, so start small and add only if price action improves. Over the next 3 months, a move back toward earlier highs is possible if buying picks up and the new product shows clear traction.

Primary drivers

  • New Labs testing can widen the potential customer base and increase add-ons
  • Shares look washed out after a sharp drop, inviting bargain hunters
  • Good buzz from users and investors, but price trend still looks shaky
  • Room to grow into new countries and health categories over time

How it played out

HIMS: target missed as shares ended at $15.80

Lyra published HIMS at $36.73 on Nov. 14, 2025. The thesis expected 30% growth toward $47.75 over the short-term window. It pointed to the new Labs testing program, a washed-out chart after a sharp drop, user and investor buzz, and possible growth in new countries and health categories.

Inside the window, HIMS rose to $40.99 on Dec. 5, 2025, a peak gain of 11.6%. That stayed below the $47.75 target. It never got there. By Feb. 12, 2026, the stock ended at $15.80. The thesis partially played out early, then missed.

What happened during the window

On Feb. 5, 2026, MarketWatch reported that Hims & Hers launched a compounded Wegovy pill. On Feb. 8, 2026, Business Insider reported that the company stopped offering that pill after discussions with industry stakeholders.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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