Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from November 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026 — -15.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 14, 2025
AMD's stock dropped hard recently, but the company still has a strong plan for AI chips. Recent news says it aims to win a much bigger slice of server chips over time. The wider tech selloff may have opened a window to begin buying. The overall trend is slowly improving even if some signals remain weak. The approach is to build the position in steps and look for a rebound over the next 3 months as AI demand and market share progress.
Primary drivers
- Story that it could win a larger share of server computer chips
- Recently sold off hard; recent average price trend is gently rising
- Chips that speed up AI work could become a major growth driver
- Recent news: aiming for roughly half of the server chip market
How it played out
AMD: target was not reached
Lyra published AMD at $243.48 on 2025-11-14 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a hard recent selloff, a gently rising average price trend, possible server chip share gains, and chips that speed up artificial intelligence work as a growth driver. It also pointed to news that AMD was aiming for roughly half of the server chip market.
Inside the window, AMD rose to $266.96 on 2026-01-23, a peak gain of 9.6%. That stayed below the $304.35 target. It never got there. By 2026-02-12, the stock ended at $205.94. The thesis partially played out at the peak, then missed by the close.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-14, AMD and TCS announced a strategic collaboration to deploy enterprise artificial intelligence, robotics, and data center products. On 2026-02-03, AMD reported fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $10.3 billion and full year 2025 revenue of $34.6 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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