Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from November 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 14, 2025
AMD's stock dropped hard recently, but the company still has a strong plan for AI chips. Recent news says it aims to win a much bigger slice of server chips over time. The wider tech selloff may have opened a window to begin buying. The overall trend is slowly improving even if some signals remain weak. The approach is to build the position in steps and look for a rebound over the next 3 months as AI demand and market share progress.
Primary drivers
- Story that it could win a larger share of server computer chips
- Recently sold off hard; recent average price trend is gently rising
- Chips that speed up AI work could become a major growth driver
- Recent news: aiming for roughly half of the server chip market
How it played out
AMD: target was not reached
Lyra published AMD at $243.48 on 2025-11-14 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a hard recent selloff, a gently rising average price trend, possible server chip share gains, and chips that speed up artificial intelligence work as a growth driver. It also pointed to news that AMD was aiming for roughly half of the server chip market.
Inside the window, AMD rose to $266.96 on 2026-01-23, a peak gain of 9.6%. That stayed below the $304.35 target. It never got there. By 2026-02-12, the stock ended at $205.94. The thesis partially played out at the peak, then missed by the close.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-14, AMD and TCS announced a strategic collaboration to deploy enterprise artificial intelligence, robotics, and data center products. On 2026-02-03, AMD reported fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $10.3 billion and full year 2025 revenue of $34.6 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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