Track record · closed signal

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — closed signal from November 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026 — +15.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$783.93 Published $873.67 Target $904.55 Window close $984.70 Peak
$772.32 – $782.22Entry zone — fair-value band
$783.93Published — price the day we called it
$873.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$984.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$904.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

At window close
+15.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+25.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$904.55
last close inside the window, ended February 12, 2026
Peak price
$984.70
peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
25

The thesis — published November 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$873.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$772.32 – $782.22
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$783.93
published November 14, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Goldman Sachs looks set for a short-term rebound. Recent results were solid, with adjusted profit of $12.25 and investment banking fees up 42%, which improved investor mood. After a dip that made the stock look temporarily cheap, a buy on weakness makes sense, then consider adding if the price moves above $805 with stronger trading activity, as deal-making and trading are picking up into the next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • Q3 was strong; investment banking fees rose 42%, lifting overall results
  • Recent pullback looks overdone, and buying interest has turned positive
  • More deals and listings returning, boosting banking and trading work
  • Investor confidence improved after the earnings report and recent updates

How it played out

GS: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published GS at $783.93 on 2025-11-14 with a short-term 12% expected gain and a $873.67 target. The thesis pointed to solid recent results, adjusted profit of $12.25, investment banking fees up 42%, buying interest after a pullback, and more deal-making and trading work into the next quarter.

Inside the window, GS rose past the target in 25 days. It later peaked at $984.70 on 2026-01-16, with a 25.6% peak gain. The stock ended the window at $904.55, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-07, Apple announced that JPMorgan Chase would become the new issuer of Apple Card, replacing Goldman Sachs. The transition was described as taking about two years.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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