Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from November 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $94.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.00Published — price the day we called it

$111.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$95.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$107.49

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$95.08

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 14, 2025 – February 12, 2026

The thesis — published November 14, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.15

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $94.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.00

published November 14, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab shows solid progress and looks suitable for a 3-month buy idea. In October it brought in a record $44.4B in new client money, which is 80% higher than last year, showing strong customer interest. A reported deal with Forge Global could let clients access more private investments. The trend is improving, so buying small pullbacks and adding if strength continues makes sense while activity stays healthy.

Primary drivers

October brought a record $44.4B in new assets, up 80% vs last year
Price trend looks healthier, with more buyers stepping in lately
Planned Forge Global tie-up could open easier access to private assets
Active clients keep moving money to Schwab, supporting steady activity

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-11-14 at $95 with expected growth of 17% toward $111.15. The thesis pointed to a record $44.4B in new client money in October, up 80% from last year, a healthier price trend, steady client activity, and a planned Forge Global tie-up that could broaden access to private investments.

Inside the window, SCHW rose as high as $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a peak gain of 13.1%. It stayed below the $111.15 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-12, it ended at $95.08. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 21, 2026, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The Wall Street Journal reported that profit rose 34%, revenue rose 19% to $6.34 billion, and trading revenue rose 22%. Investors.com reported the same day that adjusted earnings were $1.39 a share and revenue was $6.336 billion, both just below analyst estimates cited in that article.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals