Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$103.45 Published $113.56 Target $128.77 Window close $131.79 Peak
$101.59 – $103.08Entry zone — fair-value band
$103.45Published — price the day we called it
$113.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$131.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$128.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

Peak price
$131.79
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+27.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$128.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
20
Window
November 13, 2025 – February 11, 2026

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$113.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$101.59 – $103.08
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$103.45
published November 13, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart looks steady heading into a near-term event. The price has been calm rather than sprinting, and investor mood is positive. The Q3 report on Nov 20 is the key moment. Analysts recently inched up what they think the stock is worth, which helps. Over the next 0-3 months, a small move up seems doable if store results and online sales stay solid; buy near the stated range and add only after clear strength post-earnings.

Primary drivers

  • Nov 20 earnings report may quickly shift expectations and move the stock.
  • Analysts slightly raised their value estimates, a small positive signal.
  • Price has been steady lately, suggesting investors feel comfortable holding.
  • Large, everyday-needs retailer that tends to hold up in softer economies.

How it played out

WMT: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published WMT at 103.45 on 2025-11-13 with a short-term 10% expected gain. The thesis pointed to the Nov 20 earnings report, slightly higher analyst value estimates, a steady recent price, and Walmart's everyday-needs retail profile. The setup was calm rather than aggressive.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 113.56 target in 20 days. It kept rising after that, with a peak of 131.79 on 2026-02-09 and a peak gain of 27.4%. It ended the window at 128.77. The thesis played out, and then more than played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-14, Walmart announced that Doug McMillon would retire and John Furner would become CEO on 2026-02-01. On 2025-11-20, Walmart reported quarterly revenue of $179.5 billion and said it would move its listing to Nasdaq on 2025-12-09.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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