The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
Because the share price has slipped lately, investors can consider Coca-Cola a relatively safe buy: the company has raised its dividend for 63 straight years and should show it can still raise prices when it reports on July 22. Picking up shares around $69.50-$70 could catch a small bounce, but the stock already looks expensive and growth is limited, so we are only keeping it on our Watch list for now.
Primary drivers
- Recent sell-off signals fewer sellers left before earnings.
- Six decades of dividend increases provide steady income when markets swing.
- July 22 results may confirm the company can still raise prices and grow sales.
- Very strong brand image remains even after the recent drop in the share price.
How it played out
KO: target was not reached
Lyra published KO on July 14, 2025 at $68.85 with expected growth of 9% and a target of $73.96. The thesis pointed to a recent sell-off, 63 straight years of dividend increases, July 22 results as a test of pricing power and sales growth, and Coca-Cola's brand image after the drop.
Inside the window, KO rose to a peak of $70.67 on August 20, a 2.6% gain. It stayed below the $73.96 target and never reached it. By October 12, it ended at $66.57. The thesis only partially played out.
What happened during the window
On July 22, 2025, Coca-Cola reported second quarter results and updated full-year guidance. The same release said the company planned a U.S. cane sugar Coca-Cola offering for the fall.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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