The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025 — -3.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
Because the share price has slipped lately, investors can consider Coca-Cola a relatively safe buy: the company has raised its dividend for 63 straight years and should show it can still raise prices when it reports on July 22. Picking up shares around $69.50-$70 could catch a small bounce, but the stock already looks expensive and growth is limited, so we are only keeping it on our Watch list for now.
Primary drivers
- Recent sell-off signals fewer sellers left before earnings.
- Six decades of dividend increases provide steady income when markets swing.
- July 22 results may confirm the company can still raise prices and grow sales.
- Very strong brand image remains even after the recent drop in the share price.
How it played out
KO: target was not reached
Lyra published KO on July 14, 2025 at $68.85 with expected growth of 9% and a target of $73.96. The thesis pointed to a recent sell-off, 63 straight years of dividend increases, July 22 results as a test of pricing power and sales growth, and Coca-Cola's brand image after the drop.
Inside the window, KO rose to a peak of $70.67 on August 20, a 2.6% gain. It stayed below the $73.96 target and never reached it. By October 12, it ended at $66.57. The thesis only partially played out.
What happened during the window
On July 22, 2025, Coca-Cola reported second quarter results and updated full-year guidance. The same release said the company planned a U.S. cane sugar Coca-Cola offering for the fall.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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