The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from November 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 90 days.
The thesis — published November 13, 2025
The stock slipped after disappointing results and an analyst cut, yet investor interest has not collapsed. The U.S. just called phosphate and potash critical to national supply, which underscores Mosaic's role. Over the next 0-3 months, if fertilizer prices steady, the shares could rebound. A cautious plan is to start small now and add only if the price firms up above a nearby key level that would signal a healthier trend.
Primary drivers
- Shares fell on weak earnings and a downgrade, creating a potential bargain.
- New U.S. 'critical' status for phosphate and potash supports long-term value.
- Investor mood remains decent, reducing fear of further sharp selling.
- If fertilizer prices stop falling, the stock could snap back toward normal.
How it played out
MOS: target reached in 90 days
Lyra published MOS at $25.65 on 2025-11-13 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a slip after weak earnings and a downgrade, possible support from U.S. critical status for phosphate and potash, decent investor mood, and a possible rebound if fertilizer prices stopped falling.
Inside the window, MOS reached a peak of $31.28 on 2026-02-11. That was above the $30.50 target, with a peak gain of 22%. The target was reached in 90 days. The stock ended at $31.14 on 2026-02-11. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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