Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026 — -0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$997.07 – $1,012.03Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,019.17Published — price the day we called it

$1,139.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,015.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-0.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,015.21

last close inside the window, ended February 11, 2026

Peak price

$1,133.95

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,139.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$997.07 – $1,012.03

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,019.17

published November 13, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY is a strong, widely owned stock, but it has climbed quickly, so buying on small dips is smarter than chasing. A new deal with MeiraGTx shows Lilly keeps adding options for future drugs. Coverage of its Alzheimer's drug Kisunla keeps the story in the spotlight. Over the next 0-3 months, steady demand for obesity and brain-health medicines could push shares higher, with buys near recent average prices helping manage swings.

Primary drivers

Uptrend with clear signs that more buyers than sellers are active lately
New MeiraGTx partnership expands options and boosts prospects for new drugs
Ongoing attention on Alzheimer's drug Kisunla keeps investor interest high
Prefer buying after small pullbacks rather than chasing quick upward moves

How it played out

LLY: thesis rose near target but never reached it

On 2025-11-13, Lyra published a short-term LLY thesis at $1019.17 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $1139.79. The thesis pointed to an uptrend, a MeiraGTx partnership, attention on Kisunla, and a preference for buying small dips rather than chasing quick moves.

Inside the 2025-11-13 to 2026-02-11 window, LLY peaked at $1133.95 on 2026-01-08, a 11.3% gain. It stayed below the target. By the end of the window, the stock was $1015.21. The thesis partially played out, but the target was not reached.

What happened during the window

On Feb. 4, 2026, MarketWatch reported Lilly's fourth-quarter 2025 results, including higher reported sales for Mounjaro and Zepbound. On the same date, Axios reported that Lilly did not expect its planned oral GLP-1 pill to hurt injectable sales.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals